Readership accumulation through time

Not everyone who will read a specific issue of a magazine will read it on the day it is published. Some read it on publication day, some read it for the first time on the day after publication, some on the next day, and so on.

Several factors influence the speed at which the total readers of an issue build up. One is publication frequency: a typical weekly magazine accumulates new readers faster than a typical monthly. The more time-critical the editorial content, the faster the rate of accumulation of new readers of the issue. In general, the more readers per copy, the longer the period required for the later pass-on readers to first see the issue. The glossier and more robust a magazine is physically, the longer it is likely to be around to collect further readers. The distribution method plays a role too: a magazine that is largely mailed out to subscribers or customers tends to accumulate its readers faster than a magazine that largely sells in newsagents.

The speed at which magazines and newspapers build up the total readership of an average issue was measured in the Readership Accumulation Study published by the National Readership Survey (NRS) in 2004 [39, 40, 41]. The results were based on 7,001 people keeping diaries of their reading for one week. NOP World conducted the study.

The purpose of the study was to enable users to distribute through time the average issue readership estimates published by the main NRS survey. Every magazine and newspaper measured by NRS was given its own accumulation curve: that is, about 230 curves were published. In addition, summary curves for 25 publication groups are available. As examples of the types of curves produced, the two accompanying graphs show curves for a selection of eight of the publication groups.

The first graph shows how quickly daily newspapers accumulate their readers, as one would expect. The short curve is lost in the top left-hand corner of the graph because the average daily has reached 96% of a given issue’s readers on day 1, and another 3% catch up on day 2. Sunday newspapers (not graphed) are almost as quick, with 95% reached on day 1 and 99% by day 4, and newspaper supplements are not far behind.

The second curve is for TV weeklies. These magazines are published several days before the listed programmes start, so there is a slight S-shape to the curve because most readers do not obtain or look at it until day 4 when 60% have accumulated. After that, readership accumulates very fast as the viewing week covered by the programme listings starts. There are negligible new readers of the issue after the final day of the listings. Again, this makes complete sense.

The third curve shows the average for general weekly magazines: titles such as Auto Express, The Economist, Country Life and New Musical Express. 82% of readers see a given issue during week 1, and 91% have seen it by the end of week 2. The curve then almost flattens as pass-on readers take some time to be garnered, and after four months there are still 2% who have yet to see the issue.

Women’s weeklies - the fourth curve - accumulate their readers at a somewhat slower rate than general weeklies. 62% of readers see the issue in week 1, and 79% by the end of week 2. 91% are reached by week 5. After four months there are still 3% of an issue’s ultimate readers who have yet to see it.

The second accompanying graph plots the curves for four of the monthly magazine groupings. The fastest-accumulating of these four categories is women’s customer magazines, such as the Asda and Somerfield titles. Their method of distribution, editorial content, and relatively low readers-per-copy (for monthlies) mean that by week 4 they have built up 81% of their readers, and 99% are reached by week 9.

Men’s monthlies – titles such as FHM, Men’s Health and Esquire – are the slowest-building category of all 25 publication groups, in the early weeks. By week 4 only 36% of readers have seen the issue. But the group maintains its rate of climb for a longer period than several other groups for whom diminishing returns set in more quickly. In week 9 men’s monthlies overtake the home interest group, and 90% of readers are accumulated by week 11. After six months there remain 5% of readers who have not yet seen the issue.

The other two curves in the graph have a similar shape to each other but general monthlies accumulate their readers slightly more quickly than home interest monthlies. After six months 6% of general monthlies’ readers have yet to see the issue. For the home interest titles the figure is 9%, the highest percentage for any publication group. This reflects these magazines’ physical durability, the relatively timeless quality of the editorial content, their ability to remain desirable to future readers, and thus their comparatively high number of pass-on readers.

These eight sample curves give a general impression of how readership accumulates. They show how variable it can be from group to group, and how the variations make good sense.

The driving force for measuring accumulation has been the need to improve the allocation of advertisements across a campaign period, in order to control the week by week delivery of ad exposures. This aspect is discussed in section 41 of this report. In addition, the data have been integral to a new analysis of the effectiveness of magazine advertising. The analysis, commissioned by PPA and published in 2005, is reviewed in sections 23 and 40.

The NRS accumulation curves are very similar to the curves previously found in the USA, when research agency MRI (Mediamark Research Inc) published a pioneering study in 2001 [42]. We can be confident that a broadly comparable pattern exists in most other countries around the world.